As each year comes to a close, we find ourselves looking back at the prior year’s data to formulate conclusions about our market. Was the market strong or weak? Is it trending down or up? In theory, these conclusions are extremely informative to those contemplating buying or selling real estate in the near future.
That said, because a great deal of the property sold in New York City is in new development, our market data is skewed because new development inventory is not often publicly listed and the sale prices of those properties were in fact agreed upon (contract signed) years before their actual closing. As such, I find looking back at a single year to be misleading. Rather, I think what is most helpful is to look at the data in multiple ways.
Firstly, we will focus on the Olshan Report which compiles data on all properties entering contract over $4M. In comparing 2018 to 2015, as it is my opinion that the New York City market peaked in the spring of 2015, we are able to identify some relevant trends.
source: Olshan Report
Secondly, we will take a look at the End of Year report from Urban Digs, which records monthly data in all price ranges, published year-over-year (for example, December 2018 data versus December 2017).
Upper East Side
Supply up 22.6%
Days on Market up 48%
Monthly absorption rate up 22.6%
Off Market up 31.2%
Upper West Side
Supply up 27.1%
Days on Market up 51.7%
Monthly absorption rate up 20%
Off Market up 44.8%
Supply up 17.9%
Days on Market up 36.5%
Monthly absorption rate up 30.2%
Off Market up 33.7%
source: Urban Digs
Absorption Rate: the number of months it would take to sell the currently listed homes on the market.
Off Market: the number of properties that have NOT sold, and as a result, have been taken off the market.
Reviewing this data, while it is clear that 2018 was a year of decline and we are solidly in a buyers’ market, the fact is that this trend has actually been playing out since 2015.
Jeremy and Robin Stein Top 5 Sales Team Nationwide 2017 917.854.4411 | firstname.lastname@example.org 917.570.8386 | email@example.com
IN THE NEWS
REAL ESTATE SLOWS & WALL STREET SLUMPS
The month of December was a turbulent time for Wall Street, and this instability will have ripple effects in all sectors of our economy, including the housing market.
Below are two articles, one from The New York Times and one from online real estate news source Inman, that summarize the most important points regarding Wall Street and the future of the housing market that you need to know going into 2019.
The New York Times breaks down this recent 'reset,' promising this recent slow down is only relative to the last three to four years, but within an historical context, the New York real estate market continues to persevere.
It's that time of the year again - the Holidays are a time of giving, but many New Yorkers struggle when it comes to how much they should be giving when it comes to tipping their building staff. While tipping isn't a necessity, it's a meaningful way to show one's appreciation for those that make your day-to-day living a bit easier. How much appreciation depends on the size of the building, quality of service, how long a staff member has been with the building and whether the tipper owns or rents.
StreetEasy has created a quick-and-easy guide to help you break down what you should be tipping your building staff.
In a move that could entirely change the shape of Manhattan's lower west side, the Walt Disney Company announced it would move its New York operations from its longtime home on the Upper West Side to Hudson Square, the booming downtown neighborhood sandwiched between the West Village, SoHo and TriBeCa. Once known as the printing district, Hudson Square is now being revitalized into a home for media, advertising, and creative companies.
Disney plans to build a modern, one-million-square-foot complex that would house ABC headquarters, WABC News, offices, production facilities and studios, including those for “The View” and “Live With Kelly and Ryan,” on an entire block bounded by Hudson, Varick, Vandam and Spring Streets. Robert Iger, the chairman and chief executive of The Walt Disney Company, said in a statement that the new building will let it adapt new technology and that the “move represents a historic step forward toward our long-term vision for our New York operations. The Hudson Square district is rapidly becoming a dynamic, innovative hub for media, technology and other creative businesses.”
And Disney isn’t the only major corporation moving into Hudson Square. Just this month, Google officially announced its plan to invest over $1 billion in capital improvements to establish a new campus, Google Hudson Square. Pictured above, the over 1.7 million square-foot campus will encompass two Hudson Street buildings that will open by 2020, followed by the project's focal point, 550 Washington Street, in 2022.
RAISING THE ROOF
In recent mortgage news, the Federal Reserve has raised its benchmark interest rate again — the fourth this year — and consumers can expect to feel it, one way or another.
Whether you will cheer or chafe at the increase depends on whether you’re a saver or a spender. Savers and retirees seeking juicier yields will have an easier time finding savings accounts that pay more than 2 percent. But people trying to whittle down a pile of credit card debt, tap their home equity line of credit or purchase a car may find that it will cost a little more.
Learn what the interest hike means for you in this recent spotlight by The New York Times.
As members of the Market Leader Partners Initiative, comprised of Sotheby's International Real Estate’s finest professionals in every key market around the world, we want to introduce you to our Palm Beach partners Frances and Todd Peter and their property at Seminole Beach.
As the winter chill sets in throughout the northeast, there isn't a more popular destination for New Yorkers than southern Florida. Known for its palatial oceanfront estates, Palm Beach is a relaxing escape from the chaos of New York City, and conveniently only a two-hour flight away.
This e-mail was sent by Sotheby's International Realty, Inc. located at 38 East 61st Street, New York, NY 10065. To not receive further e-mails from The Stein Team at this address, please follow this link.