Absorption Rate Analysis from Sotheby's 3rd Quarter Market Report
CITY LIVING with The Stein Team
Sotheby's 3rd Quarter Market Report has been released. Our takeaway (supported by our boots on the ground intel) is that the market is shifting, starting from the top down. A key metric we look at in the report is Absorption Rate whereby we take the number of active listings in a particular price range and divide by the average number of closed sales over the last 6 month period. The report refers to a "historic range of equilibrium” being around 9 months of absorption. To translate, what this means is that when the absorption rate in a certain price range is below 9 months, that market is considered to be a Seller's market. When the rate is at 9 months, the market is at its equilibrium point. When we have more than 9 months of absorption, we are in a Buyer's market. As of the 3rd Quarter, properties in the $20M+ range have an absorption rate of 25 months - well over the 9 month equilibrium point. Properties in the $10-$20M range are being absorbed at a rate of 20 months, $6-$10M are at a rate of 11 months and its only in the $4-$6M range where we see the rate (10 months) closer to the equilibrium point. Below $4M, the Seller seems to still have the upper hand however we cannot be certain for how much longer.
Financial Markets abroad have been uncertain and the US stock market experienced a very volatile end of Summer as we know. Uncertainty generally leads to caution in the marketplace which leads many to believe the current slow down in Real Estate in New York marks less of a long term change in overall direction as much as simply a pause while people gather themselves and reassess - waiting for some level of confidence to return to financial markets before jumping back in.
We will as always continue to monitor all markets and be available to you to discuss your needs and concerns.
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Mortgage rates are very low right now and the Fed does not seem to be poised to raise them as was expected. The Fed keeps suggesting a hike is around the corner but then backs off making the move. Surprisingly, we've had clients obtain loans below 1.5% (though not the normal rate for a buyer off the street). With rates as low as we have seen to date, buyers are obviously in a position to afford more than ever before. This ability, however, is offset to some degree, by the general caution that is prevalent with buyers at the moment. Certainly in the below $3M range, where we see the most mortgages, the rates are being taken advantage of.
Stein Team News
75 Bedford Street on NBC Open House
131 Watts Street in The New York Times
In The Press
We are proud to report that The Stein Team continues to garner press on behalf of our listings on a regular basis. Our townhouse at 75 Bedford Street was featured by NBC Open House in their latest episode. Noted designer Fernando Santangelo narrates the video, touring the glamorous residence. Enjoy the tour by clicking on the image.
Additionally, one of our newest listings, the Penthouse at 131 Watts Street, was featured in The New York Times "On the Market" column. You can read the full article by clicking on the image.
New Development News
111 West 57th Street
520 West 28th Street
New condo mania is hitting a fever pitch! Curbed has mapped the hundreds of new apartments that will inundate the real estate market in the coming months.
From "front-and-center" developments like 111 West 57th St (the second tallest residential tower in the city) and 520 West 28th St (the first residential project of starchitect Zaha Hadid in New York City) to more unique boutique projects like 34 Prince St (a former catholic school converted to 7 condos and 2 townhouses) or 1 Great Jones Alley (14 ultra-luxe condos built on the site of a former NoHo flea market), New York City's new condo market has something to satiate everyone's real estate appetites.
Stein Team Favorites
The holiday season is upon us, and it's time to give thanks in style - whether your taste is contemporary or traditional, enjoy this array of our favorite Thanksgiving table settings and centerpieces for ideas and inspiration to make this Thanksgiving tasting - and looking - better than ever.
"Hardware is the jewelry of the house." - Peter Van Cronenburg
Whether starting a new renovation or simply freshening up, new hardware can do both. Not only a necessity for safety, hardware has for centuries been an important part of design, rich in technique and artistry.
With endless choices - bronze, gunmetal, oil rubbed or matte - just adding a new doorknob can transform an otherwise nondescript door.
This month we highlight the work of Van Cronenburg Architectural Hardware, whose archives contain over 9,000 pieces dating back to the 1700's, and inspire their own designs hand crafted in Belgium.
Designs range from historic to contemporary, and these creations continue to be modern and relevant in today's design world.